Simulated dynamics of Arabian Oryx (Oryx leucoryx) in the Israeli Negev: Effects of migration corridors and post-reintroduction changes in natality on population viability

摘要: Abstract The Arabian Oryx (Oryx leucoryx) is listed as critically endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and a reintroduction effort currently underway involving three release sites in Negev desert southern Israel. We describe simulation model developed to project future population trends view uncertainties concerning establishment migration corridors among post-reintroduction increases natality rates. first evaluate ability simulate observed growth following reintroductions Oman, date Israeli Negev. then use scenarios under all combinations assumptions regarding two Model projections suggest (1) no individual site supports viable (minimum size has been estimated at 100 individuals) any scenarios; (2) if there are rates, area metapopulation (101 only with sites; (3) (247 also between Sites A C (172 individuals). that uncertainty migration, which rates most critical management decisions, might be reduced substantially continued field monitoring over next 5 or 6 years; Site B (mountainous terrain) remains either until corridor least (open, flat have confirmed, decision made abandon favor an alternative site.