Spatio‐temporal marine conservation planning to support high‐latitude coral range expansion under climate change

摘要: Aim: Increasing sea-surface temperatures (SST) have resulted in poleward range expansions of scleractinian corals and declines their core ranges. These changes may provide management opportunities for the long-term persistence corals, but spatial prioritization rarely considers anticipates these changes. We developed a spatio-temporal conservation plan that accommodates future coral based on projections SST. Our planning approach is particularly useful places with limited information about species distributions. aims were to (1) identify areas consistently remain important through time (2) determine differences between priorities account potential those ignore them. Location: Japan. Methods: approaches using predicted habitat distributions current conditions, near distant future. Using Marxan software, we designed plans scenarios incorporated different types temporal connections. Spatial connections are physical adjacent nearby areas, whereas connect throughout time. Results: found protecting possible by prioritizing A spatially temporally cohesive was accomplished only 14% increase overall reserve system costs, compared systems ignoring The attributes priority (e.g. locations, outside boundary length size) substantially when varied Main conclusions: This study demonstrated highest now will not necessarily be optimal change, such as expansions. Furthermore, showed incorporating into achieves objectives simultaneously conserving climate facilitating SST rises.