Asymmetric Predictability and Cognitive Competition in Football Penalty Shootouts

摘要: Sports provide powerful demonstrations of cognitive strategies underlying competitive behavior. Penalty shootouts in football (soccer) involve direct competition between elite players and absorb the attention millions. The penalty shootout Germany England 1990 World Cup semifinal was viewed by an estimated 46.49% UK population. In a shootout, goalkeeper must defend their goal without teammate assistance while opposing series kickers aim to kick ball past them into net. As many sports, during often approaches too quickly for react its direction motion; instead, guess likely kick, dive anticipation, if they are have chance saving shot. We examined all 361 kicks from 37 that occurred Euro matches over 36-year period 1976 2012 show goalkeepers displayed clear sequential bias. Following repeated same direction, became increasingly opposite on next kick. Surprisingly, failed exploit these biases. Our findings highlight importance monitoring predicting behavior real-world competition. pit one against several rapid succession. Asymmetries capacities individual versus group could produce significant advantages opponents.