The predictive ability of serum α‐fetoprotein for hepatocellular carcinoma is linked with the characteristics of the target population at surveillance

摘要: Background Serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) is the most important tumor marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The reported predictive accuracy of AFP HCC widely varied. This study investigated factors contributory to heterogeneity ability detect HCC. Methods A total 1,135 patients were categorized into four groups: undergoing surgical resection (n = 248), chronic hepatitis B (CHB, n = 413), C (CHC, n = 207), and liver cirrhosis (LC, n = 267). area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was estimated in different combinations. Results The AUC highest when co-analyzed with LC (0.805), followed by co-analyzing CHB (0.797) CHC (0.740). optimal cutoffs between 26 32 ng/ml. Patients size ≤3 cm had a lower positive value (PPV, 30%) compared >3 (46%), HBsAg-negative anti-HCV-positive lowest PPV (38%) other groups (60%, 100%, 82%) at cutoff 20 B-negative subjects (0.684 0.509), B-positive (0.826 0.806) stratified status HCV. Elevated ALT >80 U/L independently predicted increased (>20 ng/ml) levels. Conclusions Serum fairly stable HCC, an around 30 level, viral status, may significantly confound its HCC. J. Surg. Oncol. 2007;95:645–651. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.