Prioritizing actions for the recovery of endangered species: Emergent insights from Greater Sage-grouse simulation modeling

摘要: Abstract Urgent conservation situations require immediate action informed by existing data and information. Model-based analyses are well suited to rapidly identifying evaluating alternative actions but often lack explicit linkages between habitat conditions population outcomes. We provide an example of how spatially modeling can uniquely inform planning integrating changes in with responses. Using a case study the critically endangered Greater Sage-grouse Canada, we integrated selection maps, demography demographic risk movement, behavior into predictive individual-based framework. used this framework simulate dynamics, evaluate sensitivities, assess source-sink compared gains from restoring different types (strengths) sinks. Sensitivity analysis results underscored need for multiple, simultaneous recovery stabilize population, including improving chick adult survival. Strong dynamics were emergent property simulations, driven maladaptive habitats low survival nest success. Simulated restorations strong sinks more effective at increasing abundance than targeting all sinks, or removing Spatially be informative means predicting comparing potential responses restoration options. Individual-based habitat-population particularly useful species, when too few animals time remains conduct field experiments.