作者: Bent Flyvbjerg , Allison Stewart
DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2238053
关键词:
摘要: Do different types of megaprojects have cost overruns? This apparently simple question is at the heart research University Oxford aimed understanding characteristics megaprojects, particularly in terms how they are established, run and concluded. In this study, we set out to investigate overruns Olympic Games. To do so, examined costs Games over half a century, including both summer winter Olympics. We looked evolution final reported compared these established bids, submitted International Committee (IOC) up seven years before occurred. In so doing largest dataset its kind, documented for first time consistent fashion Games, from 1960 2012. discovered that stand two distinct ways other megaprojects: (1) The overrun with 100 per cent consistency. No type megaproject regarding overrun. Other project typically on budget time, but not (2) With an average real 179 – 324 nominal historically been significantly larger than infrastructure, construction, ICT, dams. data thus show city nation decide host take one most financially risky exists, something many cities nations learned their peril. For London 2012 find that: sports-related currently estimated USD14.8 billion, track become costly Olympics ever. projected 101 terms, below historical so. (3) is, however, higher recent since 1999. therefore reversing positive trend falling