A population-based study of breast cancer prevalence in Australia: predicting the future health care needs of women living with breast cancer

摘要: Breast cancer places a heavy burden on the Australian healthcare system, but information about actual number of women living with breast and their current or future health service needs is limited. We used existing population-based data innovative statistical methods to address this critical research question in well-defined geographic region. from New South Wales (NSW) Central Cancer Registry PIAMOD (Prevalence Incidence Analysis MODel) software were project prevalence NSW. Parametric models fitted incidence survival data, modelled estimates then estimate prevalence. To requirements projected was divided into phases care according different stages survivorship trajectory. The NSW diagnosis had increased 19,305 1990 48,754 2007. This increase further 68,620 by 2017. majority these survivors will require continued monitoring (31,974) be long-term (29,785). About 9% active treatment (either initial therapy, for subsequent metastases second cancer) 1% need end life due cancer. Extrapolating projections national population would equate 209,200 Australia 2017, many whom post-treatment monitoring. Thus, careful planning development system able respond demand required.