Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method

摘要: Based on the study of relationship between structure and feedback China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate total consumption in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some parameters The results showed that would increase steadily year reach range from 3600 4500 billion cubic meters 2035. Furthermore, terms structure, urban still be largest term, followed as industrial fuel, power generation chemical industry. addition, compared with population growth, economic development plays dominant role impact urbanization is significant, promotion utilization technology can effectively reduce gas.