Risk Prediction for Local Breast Cancer Recurrence Among Women with DCIS Treated in a Community Practice: A Nested, Case-Control Study.

摘要: Various patient, treatment, and pathologic factors have been associated with an increased risk of local recurrence (LR) following breast-conserving therapy (BCT) for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). However, the strength importance individual has varied; whether combining improves prediction, particularly community practice, is uncertain. In a large, population-based cohort women DCIS treated BCT three community-based practices, we assessed validity Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram, which combines clinical, pathologic, treatment features to predict LR. We reviewed slides patients unilateral BCT. Regression methods were used estimate risks The MSKCC nomogram was applied study population compare nomogram-predicted observed LR at 5 10 years. 495 our grouped into quartiles octiles 5-year absolute lowest highest 4.8 33.1 % (95 % CI 3.1–6.4 24.2–40.9, respectively; p < 0.0001). overall correlation between 10-year recurrences 0.95. Compared rates, estimates provided by showed good correlation, reasonable discrimination c-statistic 0.68. prediction 5- when practice. This therefore, useful decision aid DCIS.