Super‐ordinary bias in Japanese self‐predictions of future life events

摘要: Japanese are said to value being ordinary and emphasize similarity with others. We theorized that tend to. perceive themselves as ordinary, so much their self-predictions about future life events biased (super-ordinary bias). Specifically, it was expected overestimate the likelihood of experiencing common (such getting married or catching flu) underestimate rare winning a lottery murdered). examined effects commonness desirability on relative-likelihood estimates. Our expectation supported by three studies, involving questionnaire, laboratory experiment, mail survey. Findings consistent the,assumed tendency view oneself super-ordinary. The super-ordinary bias also found be independent unrealistic optimism pessimism.