Probabilistic flood inundation mapping at ungauged streams due to roughness coefficient uncertainty in hydraulic modelling

摘要: Abstract. Probabilistic flood inundation mapping is performed and analysed at the ungauged Xerias stream reach, Volos, Greece. The study evaluates uncertainty introduced by roughness coefficient values on hydraulic models in modelling mapping. well-established one-dimensional (1-D) model, HEC-RAS selected linked to Monte-Carlo simulations of roughness. Terrestrial Laser Scanner data have been used produce a high quality DEM for input minimisation improve determination accuracy channel topography required model. Initial Manning's n are based pebble count field surveys empirical formulas. Various theoretical probability distributions fitted evaluated their represent estimated values. Finally, Latin Hypercube Sampling has generation different sets Manning maps created with use Monte Carlo simulations. Historical extent data, from an extreme historical flash event, validation method. calibration process binary wet-dry reasoning Median Absolute Percentage Error evaluation metric. results show that proposed procedure supports probabilistic hazard rivers provides water resources managers valuable information planning implementing risk mitigation strategies.