Pathways of demographic and urban development and their effects on land take and ecosystem services: The case of Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal

摘要: Abstract Land use and land cover (LULC) changes, particularly take by urbanization, can jeopardize ecosystems their capacity to provide humans with numerous benefits, known as ecosystem services. A better understanding of the connections between take, changes in complex LULC patterns services is still needed. Especially needed are forward-looking analyses that support spatial planning face targets like “no net take,” set Europe. The aim this research gain insight into possible consequences alternative pathways demographic urban development, terms supply. Using Lisbon Metropolitan Area Portugal case study, four contrasting scenarios for 2030 were developed major determinants (with a focus on residential development) priority region, well deal climate regulation, recreation food production. Our findings suggest effects development positive “compact city” negative an “urban sprawl” pattern, even opposite developments (growth versus decline). However, each pattern have both supply Hence, tensions exist model provision dwellers, especially across levels. We argue way defined influence outcome kind assessment, depending which dataset used it. Exploring approach different stakeholders while adopting more extreme scenario assumptions additional insights topic.