Estimating the detection capability of the International Monitoring System infrasound network

摘要: [1] A 59 station infrasound network is being established as part of the verification regime for Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. We present a probabilistic model predicting detection threshold (defined chemical explosive yield at which two stations will detect signals with 90% probability). incorporate influence stratospheric wind and bandwidth while accounting estimates noise amplitude propagation uncertainties. Inclusion wind, using state-of-the-art climatological model, tends to reduce threshold. For 66%/88% Earth's surface area lower than that expected windless case all/≥90% time. However, preferential downwind makes location explosions yields close more difficult due restricted azimuthal coverage. Completing IMS also important: 39 operating in October 2008 approximately 45% higher predicted full network. Moreover, absolute values are highly sensitive frequency band evaluated. A detector simulation comprising overlapping two-octave bands indicates that, when low frequencies above 0.2 Hz, capability ( 210 t (>420 nuclear equivalent yield) be detected over ≥95% any time year (with