Modeling micro-scale ecological processes and emergent patterns of mountain pine beetle epidemics

摘要: Abstract Forest insect outbreaks can impose significant tree mortality across vast forested landscapes. The current epidemic of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, for example, has led to the trees in western Canada and U.S. spanning tens millions hectares. ecological processes driving beetle are governed by multiple feedback mechanisms, thresholds, external constraints that exist along a spatial continuum from individual insect–tree interactions landscape level change. These components epidemics need be explicitly parameterized modeling efforts aim predict where disturbance will occur forest each year amount ensue as result. However, do date, minimal examine how local between beetles translate into broader patterns mortality, those limited relatively scales. In this study, we present an agent-based model simulates results combination beetle–tree interactions, beetle-to-beetle communication, defense attack, density dynamics, host availability, dispersal behavior, heterogeneity. Our is tested using data area central British Columbia, Canada, near center outbreak region. both overall producing similar observed aerial surveys health. Moving forward, computational efficiency our demonstrates capability applied large, regional landscapes when implemented with sufficient computing resources.