Contribution of climate variability to occurrences of anoxic crises ‘malaïgues’ in the Thau lagoon (southern France)

摘要: Abstract The Thau lagoon, located in southern France, suffers episodically summer from anoxic crises known as ‘malaigues’. Such mostly occur under warm conditions and low winds. In this paper we investigated effects of local weather (air temperature, wind speed precipitation over France), two climate oscillations (the North Atlantic Oscillation the El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on malaigue occurrences based 33-year data series dates when malaigues appeared. study shows that probability occurrence increases with increasing temperature decreasing winds August both associated to high phase an index Oscillation. Malaigues are found be frequently preceded by increased July which contributes a larger nutrient input into lagoon its eutrophication. It is also coincide Oscillation-like oscillation most significantly values during preceding May. This result used propose simple method for early warning appearance degree confidence.