‘Opening up’ geoengineering appraisal: Multi-Criteria Mapping of options for tackling climate change

作者: Rob Bellamy , Jason Chilvers , Naomi E. Vaughan , Timothy M. Lenton

DOI: 10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2013.07.011

关键词:

摘要: Abstract Concerted efforts have begun to appraise deliberate, large-scale interventions in the Earth's climate system known as ‘geoengineering’ order provide critical decision support policy makers around world. To date geoengineering appraisals employed narrowly framed inputs (such context, options, methods and criteria) ‘closed’ output reflexivity often amounting unitary prescriptive recommendations. For first time, this paper we begin address these limitations by ‘opening up’ appraisal outputs a wider diversity of framings, knowledges future pathways. We use Multi-Criteria Mapping methodology carbon solar proposals alongside range other options for responding change with select but diverse group experts stakeholders. Overall option rankings are found vary considerably between participant perspectives criteria. Despite differences, ranks most lower than mitigating (including voluntary behaviour low technologies). The performance all is beset uncertainty, albeit differing degrees, it can be seen that better performing outperformed under their pessimistic scores poorer optimistic scores. Several findings contrast those published appraisals. In particular, where stratospheric aerosol injection has previously when assessed against broader criteria (spanning identified groups) performs relatively poorly. end briefly exploring implications our analysis technologies, governance, appraisal.

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