Emissions and their drivers: sensitivity to economic growth and fossil fuel availability across world regions

摘要: This paper investigates the extent to which uncertainty on regional patterns of economic growth and fossil fuel availability impacts emission patterns, drivers, mitigation potentials strategies, through an analysis across five key world regions in different stages their development (Africa, India, China, Europe USA) using a set scenarios simulated with REMIND model. Important differences are identified trajectories developed, emerging developing regions, both baseline climate policy scenarios, due rates, energy carbon intensity developments, potentials. In baseline, developments vary strongly assumptions, while has particularly strong effect result more region-specific sensitivity than do variations. On other hand, core findings associated strategies remain unaffected by this uncertainty. all USA India greatest emitters terms cumulated 21st century emissions, comprising almost 50 % global total. Differences per capita emissions between developed countries persist under either assumption, but contracted policy. Long-term above average Europe, reflecting relatively smaller renewable resource The technological implications change insensitive assumptions.