The predictability of near-coastal currents using a baroclinic unstructured grid model

摘要: A limited domain, coastal ocean forecast system consisting of an unstructured grid model, a meteorological regional and global tidal database is designed to be globally relocatable. For such viable, the predictability currents must well understood with error sources clearly identified. To this end, applied at mouth Chesapeake Bay in response Navy exercise. Two-day forecasts are produced for 10-day period from 4 14 June 2010 compared real-time observations. Interplay between temporal frequency model boundary forcing application external tides impacts characteristics current, even contributing small phase error. Frequencies least 3 h needed resolve signal within model; otherwise, externally capture variability. Spatial resolution (3 vs 1 km) does not impact skill current prediction. Tidal indicates excellent representation dominant M 2 tide water level currents. Diurnal tides, especially K 1, amplified unrealistically coarse 27-km winds. Higher-resolution winds reduce exception wind originating SSW, SSE, E. These run shore parallel subject strong interaction shoreline that poorly represented by 3-km fields. The vertical distribution also predicted model. including areas close most critical component accurate forecasts. Additionally, it demonstrated plays large role establishing realistic thermal density structures upwelling prone regions.