Elections and Elite Violence on the Road to Democratization, 1800-2010

摘要: This paper presents an alternative view of how and why countries democratize, using a comprehensive breakdown all transitions from 1800 to 2010. I show that 9 in 10 occur through one three channels: the aftermath violent internal conflict among elites (overwhelmingly coups civil wars), elections which ruling party remains competitive post-transition, or foreign coercion (primarily defeat war). Whereas scholars typically think democratization terms regime giving up power, argue instead when either elite weakens regime's grip on power expects share post-democratization. framework improves predictions democratic transitions, as they are shown follow major political events like coups, elections, wars. Further, democratizing effects popular protest socioeconomic factors mediated these triggering events. Lastly, mode transition strongly predicts later survival.