摘要: A long-standing debate pits those who think economic development leads to democratization against argue that both result from distant historical causes. Using the most comprehensive estimates of national income available, I show is associated with more democratic government — but in medium run (10 20 years). The reason higher usually only prompts a breakthrough politics after incumbent leader leaves office. And short run, faster growth increases leader’s odds survival. present evidence turnover matters because conservatism grows tenure and newer leaders are readier risk political reform. This logic helps explain why democracy advances waves followed by periods stasis dictators, concerned entrench themselves power, end up preparing their countries leap level when they eventually overthrown.
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