Prelude to Cycle 23: The Case for a Fast-Rising, Large Amplitude Cycle

摘要: For the common data-available interval of cycles 12 to 22, we show that annual averages sunspot number for minimum years (R(min)) and maximum (R(max)) value aa geomagnetic index in vicinity (aa(min)) are consistent with notion each has embedded within its respective record a long-term, linear, secular increase. Extrapolating these fits cycle 23, infer it will have R(min) = 12.7 +/- 5.7, R(max) 176.7 61.8, aa(min) 21.0 5.0 (at 95-percent level confidence), suggesting 23 greater than 7.0, 114.9, 16.0 97.5-percent confidence). Such values imply be larger average size and, consequently (by Waidmeier effect), fast riser. We also from records existence an even- odd effect, one which odd-following is numerically even-leading cycle. even-odd effect suggests 157.6 19.0, were recorded current pair (cycles 22 23). 1995, measured about while number, was 18. Because usually lags by 1 year (true 8 11 cycles) 1996 seems destined may occur 1997, although could conjunction 3 cycles). this ambiguity determining aa(min), no formal prediction based on correlation against having r 0.90, or combined effects aa(min)-the bivariate technique-having 0.99, possible until at earliest.