On the correlation between maximum amplitude and smoothed monthly mean sunspot number during the rise of the cycle (from t=0-48 months past sunspot minimum)

摘要: During the rise from sunspot minimum to maximum, observed value of smoothed monthly mean number at maximum RM is found correlate with increasing strength against current R(t), where t elapsed time in months minimum. On basis modern era cycles (i.e., 10-22), inferred linear correlation be statistically important 95-percent level confidence) about 11 mo past and very (i.e.. 99-percent 15 minimum; ignoring cycle 19, largest era, onset. estimates can gauged usually within +/- 30 percent during first 2 yr 20 (or better) after a cycle's For 23, because controversy exists regarding placement its onset), being either May 1996 or perhaps August shortly thereafter), are divergent, lower (more like size cycle) when using earlier epoch higher (above average size) later-occurring through October 1997 (t = 17 14 mo, respectively), having provisional 32.0. date projects an 110.3 33.1, while later one 137.2 41.2. The projection slowly decreasing onset date, it date.