Potential impact of (CET) carbon emissions trading on China’s power sector: A perspective from different allowance allocation options

摘要: Abstract In Copenhagen climate conference China government promised that would cut down carbon intensity 40–45% from 2005 by 2020. CET (carbon emissions trading) is an effective tool to reduce emissions. But because not fully implemented in up now, how design it and its potential impact are unknown us. This paper studies the of introduction on China’s power sector discusses different allocation options allowances. Agent-based modeling one appealing new methodology has overcome some shortcomings traditional methods. We establish agent-based model, CETICEM (CET Introduced Electricity Market), China. CETICEM, six types agents two markets modeled. find that: (1) internalizes environment cost; increases average electricity price 12%; transfers volatility market, increasing 4%. (2) influences relative cost generation technologies through price, significantly proportion environmentally friendly technologies; expensive solar particular develops significantly, with final 14%. (3) Emission-based brings about both higher prices than output-based which encourages producers be friendly. Therefore, more conducive reducing Chinese sector.