Bi-stability of SUDR+K model of epidemics and test kits applied to COVID-19

摘要: Motivated with various responses of world governments to COVID-19, here we develop a toy model the dependence epidemics spreading on availability tests for disease. Our model, that call SUDR+K, is based usual SIR but it splits total fraction infected individuals into two components: those are undetected and detected through tests. Moreover, assume available increase at constant rate from beginning consumed detect individuals. Strikingly find bi-stable behavior between phase giant very small fraction. We show separation these regimes governed by match testing infection spread given time. also existence phases does not depend mathematical choice form term describing which tested detected. Presented research implies vigorous early activity, before enters its phase, can potentially keep under control, even change in or decrease size whole orders magnitude. For real application realistic ongoing epidemics, would gladly collaborate field epidemiologists order quantitative models process.