Modern influences on chironomid distribution in western Ireland: potential for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction

摘要: Ireland provides a unique setting for the study of past climates, as its climate is dominated by westerly airflow from North Atlantic and readily responsive to changes in circulation patterns. Although there has been substantial research on Ireland’s environments, quantitative palaeolimnological research, especially chironomid-based lacking. In order further develop investigations, calibration set was constructed determine dominant environmental controls modern chironomids western Ireland. Chironomid subfossils were collected surface sediments 50 lakes. The lakes characterised with 36 variables, including physical attributes, lake water characteristics, sediment characteristics land cover within each catchment. this exploratory study, no specific variable targeted chosen span gradients latitude, elevation, depth trophic status. Redundancy analysis showed that six variables—mean July air temperature, depth, dissolved organic carbon, percentage catchment agriculture, peat bog scrubland—captured large statistically significant portion variance chironomid data. temperature agricultural most proving suitable inference model development. A classical weighted-averaging developed estimate coefficient determination (r jack 2 ) 0.60 root mean square error prediction (RMSEP) 0.57 °C. Results suggest summer influence distribution across wide variety types, relatively small RMSEP should allow more accurate reconstructions subdued Holocene fluctuations.