作者: Ché Elkin , Arnaud Giuggiola , Andreas Rigling , Harald Bugmann
DOI: 10.1890/14-0690.1
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摘要: In many regions of the world, drought is projected to increase under climate change, with potential negative consequences for forests and their ecosystem services (ES). Forest thinning has been proposed as a method at least temporarily mitigating impacts, but its general applicability longer-term impacts are unclear. We use process-based forest model upscale experimental data evaluating in drought-susceptible valley interior European Alps, specific aim assessing (1) when where may be most effective (2) implications dynamics. Simulations indicate that will impacted by climate-induced increases across broad elevation range. At lower elevations, currently prevalent, reduce tree mortality, have minor on dynamics longer term. Thinning particularly useful intermediate higher elevations means reducing mortality drought-sensitive species such Norway spruce larch, which dominate these elevations. However, term, even intense likely not sufficient prevent change induced dieback species, occur moderate change. also largest impact long-term magnitude depending timing intensity thinning. More done later more strongly promote transition drought-tolerant species. conclude viable option forests, efficient implementation should contingent site-specific evaluation near term risk significant drought, how rate direction driven conversion.