Drought-induced mortality of a Bornean tropical rain forest amplified by climate change

摘要: [1] Drought-related tree mortality at a regional scale causes drastic shifts in carbon and water cycling Southeast Asian tropical rain forests, where severe droughts are projected to occur more frequently, especially under El Nino conditions. We examine how the of Bornean forest is altered by rainfall, using field measurements, global climate model (GCM) simulation outputs, an index developed for drought-induced (Tree Death Indexη) associated with stochastic ecohydrological model. All parameters have clear physical meanings were obtained observations. Rainfall statistics as primary forcing terms constructed from long-term rainfall records late 20th century, 14 GCM projections 21st century. These indicate that there sporadic corresponding events, generally occurring January–March, seasonality will become pronounced, e.g., dry (January–March) seasons becoming drier wet (October–December) wetter. The computedη well reflects high drought during 1997–1998 event. For present, results demonstrate low probabilities January–March October–December, respectively, they predict difference such increase future. Such probability season still significantly high, even considering beneficial effect increased soil storage (which century).