A stochastic predictive model for the natural spread of bluetongue

摘要: In recent years the vector-borne diseases (VBD) are (re)-emerging and spreading across world having a profound impact on human veterinary health, ecology, socio-economics disease management. Arguably best-documented example of importance is twofold invasion bluetongue (BT) in Europe. Much attention has been devoted to derive presence-absence habitat distribution models model transmission through direct contact. Limited research focused dynamic modelling wind mediated BT spread. This paper shows results stochastic predictive used assess spread by vectors considering both wind-independent wind-mediated movement vectors. The was parameterised using epidemiological knowledge from BTV8 epidemic 2006/2007 BTV1 2008 South-France. correctly reflects total surface infected zone (overall accuracy=0.77; sensitivity=0.94; specificity=0.65) whilst slightly overestimating spatial case density. operationally spring 2009 predict further BTV1. allowed officers Belgium decide whether there risk introduction France into thus, need for vaccination. Given far distance predicted Belgian border, it decided not vaccinate against Belgium.