Rational temporal predictions can underlie apparent failures to delay gratification

摘要: An important category of seemingly maladaptive decisions involves failure to postpone gratification. A person pursuing a desirable long-run outcome may abandon it in favor short-run alternative that has been available all along. Here we present theoretical framework which this irrational behavior emerges from stable preferences and veridical judgments. Our account recognizes decision makers generally face uncertainty regarding the time at future outcomes will materialize. When timing is uncertain, value persistence depends crucially on nature maker's prior temporal beliefs. Certain forms beliefs imply delay's predicted remaining length increases as function already waited. In type situation, rational, utility-maximizing strategy persist for limited amount then give up. We show empirically people's explicit predictions delay lengths indeed increase elapsed several relevant domains, implying judgments offer rational basis limiting persistence. develop our into simple working model how accounts individual differences laboratory task (the well-known "marshmallow test"). conclude delay-of-gratification failure, viewed manifestation self-control capacity, can instead arise an adaptive response perceived statistics one's environment.