Coastal inundation risk assessment due to subsidence and sea level rise in a Mediterranean alluvial plain (Volturno coastal plain – southern Italy)

摘要: Abstract Interdisciplinary studies of the last years highlight that Italian coasts are significantly subject to retreat and inundation by sea ingression due natural anthropic causes. In this study, effects future relative level have been evaluated for Volturno River Plain, one widest coastal plain in southern Italy. The is characterized high economical ecological value, presence farm activities, tourist structures wetland protected zones. study area potentially prone flooding its very low topography because it affected a severe subsidence, which emphasize local effect rise ongoing climate changes. accordance with guidelines MEDFLOOD project, areas 2065 2100 comparing topographical information expected scenarios. Vertical Ground Displacements derived PS-InSAR processing data whilst mean values scenarios RCP 2.6 8.5 provided IPCC (2014) used as projections 2100. PS-InSar elaboration shows subsidence corresponds 35% annual rate phenomenon ranges between −1 −25 mm/yr. analysis, based on classification four hazard classes, indicates zones located below will increase approximately 50% respect present conditions, while can be at least 60% (IPCC, scenarios). Considering socio-economical exposure, following EUROSION project guidelines, risk maps produced. Almost 8.2 km 2 14.4 km investigated has considered marine 2100, respectively.