Development of a tool for prediction of falls in rehabilitation settings (Predict_FIRST): a prospective cohort study.
作者： C Sherrington , SR Lord , JC Close , E Barraclough , M Taylor
关键词:
摘要: OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate a simple falls prediction tool for rehabilitation settings. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 533 inpatients. METHODS: Possible predictors were collected from medical records, interview physical assessment. Falls during inpatient stays monitored. RESULTS: Fourteen percent participants fell. multivariate model to predict included: male gender (odds ratio (OR) 2.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.57-4.64), central nervous system medications (OR 2.50, CI 1.47-4.25), fall in the previous 12 months 2.21, 1.07-4.56), frequent toileting 2.14, 1.27-3.62) tandem stance inability 2.00, 1.11-3.59). The area under curve this was 0.74 (95% 0.68-0.80). Predict_FIRST is unit weighted adaptation (i.e. 1 point allocated each predictor) its 0.73 0.68-0.79). Predicted actual risks corresponded closely. CONCLUSION: This provides way quantify probability with which an individual patient will stay. Language: en
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