Incidence of blindness and severe visual impairment in Germany: projections for 2030.

摘要: PURPOSE Estimates of the incidences severe visual impairment and blindness (SVI/B) their causes are key to good health service planning. Thus, database Germany's largest state's blind registry was used estimate current incidence rates (IR) project for Germany in 2010 2030. METHODS The sample consisted 3328 blind/severely visually impaired individuals newly registered between 2000 2008. According German law, SVI B were defined as acuity equal or below 20/1000 20/400, respectively, better seeing eye. Data reference population stratified by age sex IRs. Standardized IRs estimated 2030 using national demographic projections. RESULTS Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) accounted 50% all SVI/B (5.56/100,000 personyears (PY), followed glaucoma (15%; 1.65/100,000 PY) diabetic eye disease (10%; 1.16/100,000 PY). All will rise 2030, with most pronounced increase AMD. By a AMD IR 9.5/100,000 PY is expected, accounting 57% Germany. women be more than twofold compared men (9187 vs. 3716 incident cases 2030). CONCLUSIONS There dramatic Germany, leading substantial need social provision, focus on elderly women.