Atmospheric analogues for physically consistent scenarios of surface weather in Europe and Maghreb

摘要: This study compares the multivariate predictions of daily temperature, temperature range, precipitation, surface wind and solar radiation a single-model analogue approach with an original multi-model analogy over 12 regions in Europe Maghreb. Both approaches are based on two-level models where atmospheric predictors either dynamic or thermodynamic. In approach, independent predictand-specific used. one, unique model its associated set is applied to all predictands. Testing numerous large-scale predictors, we first identify best predictor sets for each modelling strategy. Those obtained significantly different from those models. especially case local speed. methods perform similarly range radiation. We next assess ability both simulate physically coherent weather scenarios. With method, scenarios prediction day observations sampled simultaneously one day. The physical consistency between variables thus automatically fulfilled allows method reproduce well observed inter-predictand correlations, significant correlations precipitation range. These results suggest hybrid using radiation, combined univariate wind. Two options proposed which additional correction conceivable. leads possible compromise reasonable skills realistic inter-predictands classically required many impact studies.