Combination of GIS and mathematical modeling to predict floods in semiarid areas: case of Rheraya watershed (Western High Atlas, Morocco)

摘要: The Tinitine sub-watershed of Rheraya is renowned for its semiarid climate, irregular supply water flow, and historical floods; these reasons, it classified as vulnerable areas during a rainfall event. We conducted this study to propose flood prediction models adapted risky zone. For this, hydrological method forecasting rainfall-runoff used determine model conforms the basin. This based on articulation series production transfer function. goal function portion runoff, which performed by two approaches that differ in their structures: (1) first approach mathematical Horton; (2) second determination part rain contributes runoff obtained spatial map coefficient (GIS). Clark Nash, rainy efficient routes catchment outlet from unit hydrograph. characteristic parameters are through application optimization methods such genetic algorithms. Thereby, coupling producing Horton (identified parameters: initial infiltration = 15.03, final infiltration = 0.3, phi = 0.45) CA = 0.21 CB = 0.79) was given very satisfying results, mainly low difference between observed simulated hydrograph Nash about 85%. shows interest forecasting.