Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management: Kinds of uncertainty

摘要: Uncertainty pervades the natural environment and obscures our view of it. To organize ideas about uncertainty, this book uses a taxonomy uncertainty created by Regan et al . (2002a). At highest level, it distinguishes between epistemic linguistic uncertainty. Epistemic exists because limitations measurement devices, insufficient data, extrapolations interpolations, variability over time or space. There is fact, but we don't know exactly. This domain ordinary statistics conventional scientific training. Linguistic on other hand, arises language, including vocabulary, often underspecific, ambiguous, vague, context dependent, indeterminate. It distinguished from results people using words differently inexactly. chapter introduces concepts defines several subtypes within each broad category. provides some examples outlines methods that may be best suited to treating them. reflects incomplete knowledge. has main types: error, systematic variation, model subjective judgement. Each in different ways. A variety well-known statistical are available treat them (e.g. Sokal Rohlf 1995). Variability incertitude The terms ‘variability’ ‘incertitude’ make simple worth describing its utility. naturally occurring, unpredictable change, differences parameters attributable ‘true’ heterogeneity diversity population.