Identifying areas of Australia at risk of H5N1 avian influenza infection from exposure to migratory birds: a spatial analysis.

摘要: Since 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) due to H5N1 virus has been reported from both domes- tic poultry and wild birds in 60 countries resulting the direct death or slaughter of over 250,000,000 birds. The potential exists for HPAI spread Australia via migratory shorebirds returning Asia with most likely path- way introduction into commercial flocks involving transfer migrating native waterfowl species that subsequently interact on low security farms. Surveillance programmes pro- vide an important early-warning Australia's estimated 2,000 farms but, be efficient, they should risk-based target resources at those areas sectors industry higher risk exposure. This study compared distributions identify six regions where like- lihood exotic incursion establishment is highest. Analysis bird banding records showed did not move further than 10 km during spring breeding season when arrived Australia. Therefore, within significant shorebird habitat these highest comparative were identified. final analysis only two farms, one Broome Carnarvon, located risk.