Scenario analysis of China's aluminum cycle reveals the coming scrap age and the end of primary aluminum boom

摘要: Abstract China has dominated the global aluminum production and consumption in past few decades, therefore it is of particular interest to stakeholders worldwide explore whether such boom will continue or not China. This study applies a scenario-based dynamic material flow analysis quantify stocks flows along anthropogenic cycle from 1950 2100. Potential future changes significant parameters are explored identified, around 250 sets scenario results (including all flows, stocks, losses China) obtained for comprehensive analysis. The main findings include: (1) China's primary peak at 40 MMT (million metric tons) 2025, leading end that started early 1990s; (2) Domestic demand increase more than due growing accumulation in-use meeting societal needs; (3) old scrap generation dramatically (around 0.8 per year) soon secondary account 60% after 2050s almost scenarios. Thus, there be rapid shifting capacity routes. In this context, corresponding policy should focus on urban mining, improvement end-of-life management systems sorting technologies. These also reveal key opportunities barriers process. Notably, becomes increasingly important industry investigate role market waste products.