Epidemic Wave Dynamics Attributable to Urban Community Structure: A Theoretical Characterization of Disease Transmission in a Large Network

摘要: Background: Multiple waves of transmission during infectious disease epidemics represent a major public health challenge, but the ecological and behavioral drivers epidemic resurgence are poorly understood. In theory, community structure—aggregation into highly intraconnected loosely interconnected social groups—within human populations may lead to punctuated outbreaks as diseases progress from one next. However, this explanation has been largely overlooked in favor temporal shifts environmental conditions behavior because difficulties associated with estimating large-scale contact patterns. Objective: The aim was characterize naturally arising patterns that capable producing simulated multiple wave structures. Methods: We used an extensive dataset proximal physical contacts between users Wi-Fi Internet system evaluate epidemiological implications empirical urban network. characterized modularity (community structure) network then estimated dynamics under percolation-based model spread on classified multiwave using novel metric we identified structures were critical network’s ability produce epidemics. Results: robust structure large, which emerge naturally. This pattern fueled by special kind insularity locally popular individuals not ones forging more distant groups. Conclusions: Our results suggest ordinary can at scale single area without usually assumed be responsible. Understanding role allows officials anticipate having forecast future changes hosts, pathogens, or environment. [J Med Res 2015;17(7):e169]