iucn_sim: A new program to simulate future extinctions based on IUCN threat status

摘要: The ongoing environmental crisis poses an urgent need to forecast the who, where, and when of future species extinctions, as such information is crucial for targeting conservation efforts. Commonly, forecasts are made based on status assessments produced by International Union Conservation Nature (IUCN). However, researchers apply these IUCN data predicting important often omitted, which can impact accuracy predictions. Here we present a new approach software simulating extinctions information, incorporates generation length individual modeling extinction risks. Additionally, explicitly model changes in each species, transition rates that estimate from assessment history last decades. Finally, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm simulated extinctions. These estimates inherently incorporate chances given specific time frame. We demonstrate utility our estimating all bird species. Our average risk next 100 years across birds 6.98\times{10}^{-4} per species-year, predict expected biodiversity loss between 669 738 within Further, rate sharing same show larger variation than estimated with alternative approaches, reflects differences among taxa status. method demonstrates applying species-specific estimation rates, rather assuming equal risks assigned