Assessment of the Impact of Potential Climate Change on the Water Balance of a Semi-arid Watershed

摘要: With a yearly precipitation of 200 mm in most the country, Jordan is considered one least water-endowed regions world. Water scarcity exacerbated by growing demands driven population and industrial growth rising living standards. Major urban centers including Capital Amman are concentrated northern highlands, mostly contained within boundaries Zarqa River Watershed (ZRW). The ZRW third productive basin greater System. King Talal Dam was built few kilometers upstream Zarqa-Jordan confluence to regulate its input for benefit agricultural activities Valley. Concerns regarding sensitivity potential climate change have prompted authors carry out current study. methodology adopted based on simulating hydrological response under alternative scenarios. Utilizing BASINS-HSPF modeling environment, scenarios represent ing conditions with ±20% rainfall, 1°C, 2°C 3.5°C increases average temperature were simulated assessed. HSPF model calibrated using records spanning from 1980 through 1994. validated against an independent data record extending 1995 2002. Calibration verification results assessed linear regression fitting monthly daily flows. Monthly calibration verifications produced good fit coefficient r values equal 0.928 0.923, respectively. Assessment show much more modest value 0.785. study shows that warming can dramatically impact runoffs groundwater recharge ZRW. However be greatly influenced significant changes rainfall volume.