Assessment of future variability in extreme precipitation and the potential effects on the wadi flow regime

摘要: The objective of this study is to investigate how the magnitude and occurrence extreme precipitation events are affected by climate change predict subsequent impacts on wadi flow regime in Al-Khod catchment area, Muscat, Oman. tank model, a lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff was used simulate flow. Precipitation extremes their potential future changes were predicted using six-member ensembles general circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Yearly maxima daily for varying return periods compared observed projected data fitting generalized value (GEV) distribution function. Flow duration curves (FDC) developed flows. results indicate that consistently increase middle twenty-first century all (49–52 %), but may become more profound end (81–101 %). Consequently, relative greater than twofolds late occur mid-century period. analysis further suggests 50 % be associated with future. FDC reveals low-to-moderate flows (Q60–Q90) not statistically significant, whereas increases high (Q5) robust (20 25 % mid- late-century periods, respectively).