Bovine tuberculosis in brushtail possums: models, dogma and data

摘要: Three different models of bovine tuberculosis (Tb) in brushtail possums were evaluated against their stated purpose, and testable assumptions predictions available data where possible. Not surprisingly, two the may be falsified based on currently with respect to either important model or predictions, third suffer from being right for wrong reason. This does not mean that these are useful. To contrary, I argue all models, especially those published scientific literature have largely addressed contributed our understanding ability manage infection possum populations. No model, however, satisfactorily explains pronounced spatial clustering Tb, critiqued provided little strong inference as routes transmission Tb among possums. situation is helped by scarcity datasets uncontrolled populations readily confront competing possum/Tb with. As time passes, there a very real risk sets will lost. particular concern, expansion area New Zealand under active management means future opportunity collect further severely limited.