POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SNOW AVALANCHES STARTING IN FORESTED TERRAIN

摘要: Frequency and magnitude of avalanches starting in forested terrain (forest avalanches) are likely to be affected by climate change. We addressed two important developments which will influence the forest avalanche regime: 1) trends occurrence favorable snow weather situations increase probability releases, 2) changes extent, composition structure mountain forests. applied a logistic trend analysis over 41 years investigate past conditions associated with releases Swiss Alps. found negative for typical situations, 'new avalanches' 'other avalanches'. In combination currently observed cover extent density, it is thus that forests become less frequent. For started areas, we higher densities small-diameter trees (<15 cm) zone significantly reduced runout distance. Repeated measurements parameters zones revealed an density small last 20-25 leads hypothesis destructive potential such future. order account their effect on frequency, employed forest-landscape model TreeMig-Aval exemplify possible future development high alpine valley Switzerland.