Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition

摘要: Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, more systematic integration of social socio-technical characteristics systems scenario design, and, second, method apply an accordingly enhanced set indicators assessment. article, integrative assessment methodology is introduced that combines these requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based analysis techno-economic ecological indicators; (ii) non-model-based (iii) performances with respect pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) normalization make the types results (model-based non-model-based) comparable; (v) approach classify facilitate structured interpretation. The combination represents added-value methodology. illustrated for selected indicators, exemplary presented. Methodological challenges remaining questions, e.g., regarding resource requirements, or robustness pointed out discussed. We consider being substantial improvement methodologies.