Characterizing the dynamics of rubella relative to measles: the role of stochasticity

摘要: Rubella is a completely immunizing and mild infection in children. Understanding its behaviour of considerable public health importance because congenital rubella syndrome, which results from with during early pregnancy may entail variety birth defects. The recurrent dynamics are relatively poorly resolved, appear to show diversity globally. Here, we investigate the stochastic seasonally forced susceptible–infected–recovered model characterize determinants these illustrate patterns by comparison measles. We perform systematic analysis spectra fluctuations around stable attractors corresponding deterministic compare them full simulations large populations. This approach allows us quantify effects demographic stochasticity give coherent picture measles dynamics, explaining essential differences exhibited diseases. discuss implications our findings context vaccination changing rates as well persistence two childhood infections.