In and Out of War and Peace: Transitional Models of International Conflict

摘要: Dyad-year data on international conflict are simultaneously qualitative and serially dependent. Extending Beck, Katz, Tucker’s (1998) methodological contribution, I propose transitional models that deal with these two features of the data. These statistical explicitly way a dyad’s particular history peace or structures current outcomes, consistent important substantive notions in IR literature such as reputation-building, signalling, alliance reliability, territoriality, enduring rivalries. That is, (a) easily estimated; (b) resolve long-standing dilemmas, (c) speak to theoretical ideas study relations. The generalize beyond analyzed here, any type discrete time-series setting. One is novel contribution its own right --a dynamic probit model --unifying hitherto disparate branches quantitative political methodology (time series choice).