Forecasts of the 2012 US Presidential Election based on Candidates’ Perceived Competence in Handling the Most Important Issue

摘要: The Big-Issue Model predicts election outcomes based on voters’ perceptions of candidates’ ability to handle the most important issue. It provided accurate forecasts 2012 US presidential election. results demonstrate model's usefulness if one issue clearly dominates campaign, such as state economy in is also particularly valuable economic fundamentals disagree, a situation which from traditional political models suggest high uncertainty. model provides immediate feedback candidates and parties success their campaign can advise them issues assign highest priority.