The Effect of Seasonal Weather Variation on the Dynamics of the Plague Disease

摘要: Plague is a historic disease which also known to be the most devastating that ever occurred in human history, caused by gram-negative bacteria as Yersinia pestis. The mostly affected variations of weather conditions it disturbs normal behavior main plague transmission agents, namely, beings, rodents, fleas, and pathogens, environment. This turn changes way they interact with each other ultimately leads periodic disease. In this paper, we formulate epidemic model system incorporating seasonal rate order study effect variation on dynamics We compute basic reproduction number proposed model. then use numerical simulation illustrate different dependent parameters number. are able deduce infection rate, progression rates from primary forms more severe disease, infectious flea abundance affect, large extent, bubonic, septicemic, pneumonic infective agents. recommend reasonable consider these factors have been shown significant for effective control strategies.