Crop production variability in North and South America forced by life-cycles of the El Niño Southern Oscillation

摘要: Abstract In this analysis we show how globally coherent teleconnections from life-cycles of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to correlated crop production anomalies in North and South America. We estimate magnitude ENSO-induced Pan-American discuss increasing harvesting frequency may affect variability. find that ENSO accounts for ∼72%, 30% 57% maize, soybean wheat variability, respectively. are greatest with median ∼5% production. yield maize soybeans tend be same sign America southeast but an opposite northeast Brazil. Teleconnections more complicated because affects yields via lagged soil moisture US increased probability disease America, After broadly characterizing anomalies, demonstrate they not static time. Increasing has affected risks posed by ENSO. use a water balance Brazil changing safrinha cropping cycle increases both mean stress content during flowering seasons, which is result evaporative demand times lower precipitation moving seasons into months strong teleconnections. therefore variability maize.