Scenario planning in public policy: Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors

摘要: Abstract Scenario planning has formed a growing area of interest on the interface academia and public private sector policy-making. While methodological approaches are well covered in academic literature, less attention been paid to studying use, impacts effectiveness scenario This article combines preliminary findings from review evaluative literature with workshop discussions among practitioners, using environmental relevant policies as case study. Subject nascent our highlight that still is often executed rather ad-hoc isolated manner mostly geared towards indirect decision support such agenda-setting issue-framing. The slim evidence base aggravates assessment, but potential prepare policy-making for uncertainties surprises future developments better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests clearly not fully utilized. Political institutional context factors need be treated greater care future. Making under conditions deep uncertainty does only require rigorous analysis, also political will more stable settings organisational capacities build up trust experience adaptive, flexible process formats. We synthesize analysis discussion further research needs.